af Christoffer Karoff, Aarhus Universitet
På et sekund udstråler Solen mere energi end vi har brugt i hele menneskehedens historie. Uden Solen ville der ikke findes liv på Jorden. Uden Solen ville Jorden være en mørk og gold planet uden lys og med en temperatur på minus 273 grader. Alligevel mener de fleste klimaaktivister, at Solen ikke har indflydelse på Jordens klima.
I dette essay vil jeg prøve at sætte spørgsmål ved den antagelse. Dette vil jeg gøre ved at fortælle jer lidt om vores stjerne, Solen. Hvad er det der får Solen til at lyse? Hvordan kommer dette lys ned til os på jorden? Har Solen betydning for klimaet på Jorden og kan Solen være farlig for os?
Den eksplosive Sol
Solen er ikke bare en konstant lysende kugle der giver os lys og varme. På overfladen af Solen kan vi med jævne mellemrum opleve kolossale eksplosioner – de så kaldte Corona Mass Ejections, hvor enorme mængder af millioner grader varmt plasma skydes ud i rummet. Disse eksplosioner skyldes ændringer i Solens magnetfelt. De sidste 100 år har vi oplevet mange store ændringer i Solens magnetfelt og vi har derfor ofte kunne registrere eksplosioner på Solens overflade som dem på billederne.
Hvis den plasma der bliver skudt ud i forbindelse med disse eksplosioner rammer Jorden kan det få stor betydning for vores dagligdag. Således arbejder mange solfysikere på en teori om, at aktiviteten på overfladen af Solen kan have betydning for klimaet på Jorden, men det er ikke bare klimaet der kan blive berørt af eksplosionerne på Solens overflade. Satellitter i rummet og elnettet på Jorden kan også komme i problemer, hvis de bliver ramt af plasma fra de kraftige eksplosioner på Solens overflade.
Lysets rejse
Før jeg går videre med, at fortælle om eksplosionerne på Solens overflade og den betydning de har for vores dagligdag på Jorden, så skal vi først lige se lidt på det synlige lys vi også modtager fra Solen.
Den danske astronom Ole Rømer lærte os, at lys bevæger sig med en hastighed på 300.000 km i sekundet. Det tager derfor lyset 7 minutter, at nå fra Solen og ned til os på Jorden, men inden da har lyset faktisk gennemlevet en meget længere rejse indeni Solen. Lyset bliver skabt som energi fra kernefusion i Solens centrum. Solens centrum er med sine 15 millioner grader det varmeste sted i vores solsystem. Tætheden er over 10 gange så stor som blys og dette gør at der kan ske kernefusion. Dvs. at to brintatomer kan smelte sammen til et heliumatom og derved danner en masse energi.
Solens opgave er nu, at få transporteret alt denne energi der er skabt ved kernefusion i Solens centrum ud til overfladen af Solen som varme eller lys. Solen kan transportere energien eller varmen fra centrum af Solen ud til overfladen på to måder. Enten via stråling eller via konvektion. Jeg skal her nok lige nævne her, at vi i fysikken ikke skelner mellem lys og energi eller varme. Lys består af små lys-partikler – fotoner – og hver foton har en energi der giver det udsendte lys farve.
I den inderst del af Solen bliver energien transporteret via stråling, som man kender det, når man sidder foran et lejrbål og kan mære strålingsvarmen fra lejrbålet pible i ansigtet. Den del af Solen, hvor energien eller varmen bliver transporteret via stråling kaldes for strålingszonen og det tager lyset omkring en million år at rejse igennem Solens strålingszone.
I den yderst del af Solen bliver energien derimod transporteret via konvektion. Konvektion kender vi også fra en gryde med bullerkogende vand. I sådan en gryde skal varmen transporteres fra bunden af gryden på til overfladen. Dette sker i gryden med kogende vand ved en masse turbulente bevægelser, hvor store varmebobler stiger op til overfladen, hvor de køles ned for derefter at synke ned mod bunden igen. Det samme sker i Solen, hvor store bobler af varm plasma stiler op mod Solens overflade, hvor de køles ned for derefter at synke mod bunden igen. Den del af Solen, hvor energien eller varmen bliver transporteret via konvektion kaldes for konvektionszonen og det tager lyset omkring 10 dage at rejse igennem Solens konvektionszone.
Efter konvektionszonen skal lyset fra Solens centrum passere Solens fotosfære, som vi kalder Solens synlige overflade. Det er den del af Solen som man kan se, hvis man kigger på Solen gennem et par kraftige solbriller, eller gennem et almindeligt solteleskop.
På den anden side af fotosfæren finder vi Solens atmosfære som også består af to lag. En kromosfære og en corona. Selv om det er i Solens kromosfære og corona vi finde de kraftige eksplosioner jeg fortalte om før, så tager det kunne lyset fra Solen få sekunder at passer igennem disse lag og efter 7 minutter er lyset nået ned til os på Jorden.
Nordlys
Det er ikke bare lys og varme vi modtager fra Solen. I forbindelse med de enorme eksplosioner på Solens overflade, bliver der også fra tid til anden sendt store mængder elektrisk ladede partikler mod Jorden. Vi taler om, at vi oplever en solstorm. Der er dog stort set ingen af disse elektriske partikler der når ned og rammer os i hovedet. I stedet bliver de elektriske partikler afbøjet af Jordens magnetfelt, der virker som et beskyttende kraftfelt for os, som kan kender det fra Star Wars filmene.
Kraftfeltet beskytter os dog kun på Jordens overflade. Ting, som f.eks. satellitter, der befinder sig uden for magnetfeltets kraftfelt er ikke beskyttede. Således oplever vi ofte i forbindelse med store solstorme at satellitter går i stykker.
Store solstorme kan dog også bringe kraftfeltet i knæ. Eller i hvert fald slå Jordens magnetfelt ud af balance og det er når det sker, vi kan se Nordlys. Jorden har et meget simpelt magnetfelt med magnetiske feltlinjer der går fra nord til syd. Når en solstorm skubber magnetfeltet ud af balance kan man de steder, hvor feltlinjerne sidder fast, altså omkring polerne, se det flotteste grønne og violette lys på himlen. Dette lys kalder vi for nordlys.
Solens magnetfelt
Som sagt har Jorden et meget simpelt magnetfelt, med magnetiske feltlinjer der går fra nord til syd. Sådan er det ikke med Solen. Solens magnetfelt er meget mere kompliceret en Jordens. Hvor Jordens magnetfelt er stationært og kun ændrer sig meget langsomt over millioner af år, så er Solens magnetfelt dynamisk og kan ændre sig meget dramatisk over bare et par år.
Solen magnetfelt skabes af Solens dynamo, hvor store mængder plasma drives rundt i Solens konvektion zone af Solens rotation. Dette føre til at der skabes et magnetfelt og dette magnetfelt vil nu påvirke Solens rotation og strømningerne i konvektionszonen. Vi har altså fået skabt en dynamo, hvor magnetfeltet, strømningerne og rotation drives rundt af hinanden.
Solpletter
De største solpletter er ofte større end Jorden og kan faktisk godt ses med det blotte øje fra Jorden. Det skal man godt nok passe lidt på med; at rette det blottede øje mod Solen. Men omkring solopgang og specielt, hvis der er lidt diset, så kan det faktisk godt lade sig gøre og der vil man ofte kunne se et par mørke pletter på overfladen af Solen.
Ellers kan man bruge et solteleskop til at projektere et billede af Solen op på en væg eller et stykke papir. Det var det Gallileo fandt på at gøre for lidt over 400 år siden og siden har man lavet systematiske observationer af pletter på overfladen af Solen.
At Solens magnetfelt ændrer sig kan vi se på solpletterne på overfladen af Solen. Solpletterne opstår når Solens magnetfelt bryder igennem Solens overflade. Dette skaber et magnetisk tryk, der hvor magnetfeltet bryder igennem og for at udligne dette tryk, så der ikke kommer et hul, så er Solen nødt til, at sænke gastrykket i pletterne. Når trykket sænkes i pletterne, så sænkes temperaturen, derfor er pletterne et par tusinde grader koldere en resten af Solens overflader, der er omkring 6000 grader varm. Det at pletterne er et par tusinde grader koldere end resten af overfladen, gør, at de kommer til at fremstå som mørke i forhold til resten af overfladen.
Solens cyklus
I 1610 opfinder Gallileo teleskopet og retter det mod Solen. Derefter kunne man i en periode på omkring 40 år dagligt se pletter på overfladen af Solen med Gallileos teleskop. Omkring 1650 begynder pletterne på Solens overflade dog at forsvinde og faktisk kom vi ind i en periode på omkring 60 år, hvor der stort set ingen pletter var på overfladen. Denne periodes kaldes for Maunder minimummet og som jeg skal vise falder det sammen med en periode vi på Jorden kaldet den lille istid, fordi der var ualmindelig koldt på Jorden, specielt i Nordeuropa.
Fra omkring 1710 vender solpletterne tilbage på overfladen af Solen og hurtig efter bliver det åbenbaret at solpletterne følger en cyklisk bevægelse, hvor de kommer og går med en periode på omkring 10 år. Denne cykliske bevægelse kalder vi for Solens cyklus og Solens cyklus skyldes Solens dynamo som jeg beskrev før.
Det er ikke altid at Solen cyklus er lige stærk. Omkring år 1800 har vi et andet lidt mindre minimum. Dette minimum kaldes for Dalton minimummet. De sidste 100 år har vi befundet os i en periode vi kalder for det moderne maksimum, hvor der har været ualmindelig mange pletter på overfladen af Solen. Det moderne maksimum stoppede dog brat for et par år siden og lige nu spekulerer mange solfysikkere på, hvorvidt vi er på vej ind i et nyt Maunder eller Dalton minimum.
Solen og klimaet
Jeg fortalte, hvorledes Maunder minimummet faldt sammen med en periode på Jorden kaldet den lille istid, hvor det var ualmindelig koldt på Jorden, specielt i Nordeuropa. Sådanne sammenfald har fået mange til at prøve, at sammenligne estimater for middeltemperaturen på Jorden med antallet af pletter på Solens overflade. Den første der gjorde det var faktisk den engelske astronom Sir Frederick William Herschel, der i 1801 viste, at der øjensynligt var en sammenhæng mellem antallet af pletter på Solens overflade og prisen på hvede på kornbørsen i London. Årsagen til denne sammenhæng skulle ifølge Herschel være, at Solen lyste en lille smule stærkere de år hvor den var meget aktiv. Dette fik hveden til at vokse bedre på Jorden og priserne til at flade ud på kornbørsen.
I dag regner de fleste med at Herschel tog fejl. Solen lyser godt nok en lille smule stærkere når den er meget aktiv, men ændringerne er alt for små, til at vi kan forestille os, at de skulle have stor betydning for temperaturen på Jorden.
Men stadigvæk ser der jo ud til at være en sammenhæng mellem den globale middeltemperatur og antallet af pletter på Solens overflade, hvor vi kan genfinde både Dalton minimummet og det morderne maksimum.
Sekundære mekanismer
Dette har ført til at bl.a. danske astronomer har udviklet såkaldte sekundære mekanismer der kan komme med mulige forklaringer på den tilsyneladende sammenhæng mellem den globale middeltemperatur og antallet af pletter på Solens overflade.
Den nok mest kendte af disse mekanismer blev forslået af Henrik Svensmark. Her er ideen netop, at temperaturen på Jorden bliver påvirket, ikke direkte af ændringer i Solens lysstyrke, men indirekte af ændringer i mængden af kosmiske stråler vi modtager på Jorden fra vores galakse Mælkevejen. Hele solsystemet bombarderes konstant med kosmiske stråler fra supernova eksplosioner i Mælkevejen, men heldigvis beskytter Solens magnetfelt os for langt de fleste af disse kosmiske stråler. Således er Solens rigtig god til at beskytte os, når den er meget aktiv og der er mange pletter på overfladen. Henrik Svensmarks ide er nu, at de kosmiske stråler der slippe igennem til Jorden kan danne lavt liggende skyer, når de rammer Jordens atmosfære. Når Jordens atmosfære således bliver ramt af mange kosmiske stråler, så dannes der mange lavtliggende skyer, der slipper ikke så meget sollys ind og temperaturen falder.
Hvis vi således ser på forholdene omkring Maunder minimummet, så var Solen meget lidt aktiv på det tidspunkt og derfor meget dårlig til at beskytte os for kosmiske stråler. Rigtig mange kosmiske stråler slap derfor igennem til Jordens atmosfære og der blev dannet mange lavt liggende skyer, hvilket førte til at temperaturen faldt og vi fik en lille istid.
Det modsatte har så været tilfældet de sidste 100 år og det er her problemet kommer ind, for normalt begrundes opvarmningen i den 20. århundred med drivhuseffekten og ikke med Solen.
Måske er det netop grunden til at en anden sekundær mekanisme har vundet stor lydhørhed hos alverdens solfysikere de sidste par år. I denne forklaringsmodel ser man på ændringer i Solens ultraviolette udstråling. Hvor de ændringer man har målt i Solens totale udstråling kun er på omkring 0.1%, så er ændringerne i Solens ultraviolette udstråling på over 40% og det er de sidste par år blevet forslået, at dette kan føre til opvarmning og nedkøling af Jordens stratosfære. Dette skulle i sig selv ikke kunne føre til temperatur ændringer på Jordens overflade, men ideen er, at det kan føre til ændringer af jetstrømmene i Jordens atmosfære, som igen kan påvirke fordelingen af høj- og lavtryk. De sidste par år, hvor solaktiviteten lige som under Maunder minimummet har været ualmindelig lav, har dette ført til, at vi i Nordeuropa har fået kølig luft ned fra nordøst, mens temperaturerne har været mildere på Grønland.
Til forskel fra forklaringsmodellen med kosmiske stråler, så påvirker den ændrede ultraviolette udstråling altså ikke den globale middeltemperatur, den påvirker alene klimaet lokalt, specielt i Nordeuropa, Grønland og USA. Naturligt nok, har denne forklaringsmodel derfor heller ikke mødt så meget modstand fra klimaaktivister som Henrik Svensmark har mødt for sin.
Jeg begyndte med at fortælle, at Solen på et sekund udstråler mere energi end der er blevet brugt i hele menneskehedens historie. At der ikke ville findes liv på jorden uden Solen. At uden Solen ville Jorden være en mørk og gold planet uden lys og med en temperatur på minus 273 grader. Alligevel mener de fleste klimaaktivister, at Solen ikke har indflydelse på Jordens klima. Jeg håber, at jeg med dette essay har fået sat spørgsmålstegn ved denne antagelse.
Klimadiskussionen har jeg altid fundet temmelig beskidt. Emnet – den totale udslettelse af arten – er selvfølgelig også ubehageligt. Og en del af historien, tror jeg, kan meget vel være mere ubekvem, end Al Gore forestillede sig. Nemlig at det har meget lidt med menneskelig aktivitet at gøre, og at vi derfor ikke kan stille noget op; eller vi kan forebygge forudsigelige påvirkninger af forandringerne, sådan som Lomborg har foreslået. Essayet her giver en klar antydning af, at solen kan have indflydelse på klimaforandringerne – hvilket på en måde burde være indlysende ud fra en fænomenologisk betragtning. Ingen sol, ingen modne frugter etc.
Udover det kan jeg ikke lade være med at tænke, at diskussionen ville være mindre ophedet og mere rationel, hvis evolutionsteorien lå lidt længere fremme i bevidstheden. Darwin fandt forstenede muslinger i Andesbjergene. Bjergkæder har udviklet sig i løbet af livets historie, veltilpassede arter er forsvundet på grund af klimaforandringer. Rift Valley i det østlige Afrika var engang dækket af regnskov, som forsvandt og ændrede klimaet på en måde, som gav plads for nogle tilpasninger, der efterhånden førte til udviklingen af vores egen art. Vi har haft istider – flere. Kontinenterne har hængt sammen i Pangea og er drevet fra hinanden. Set i det store perspektiv synes det således ikke som om meget har forandret sig de sidste 200 år.
Jeg har altid fundet det forrykt at man antager at mennesker har større effekt på klimaet end solen – og det er der en hel del folk der mener – bare se forskellen mellem vinter og sommer, basalt set drejer det sig om at jordens "tilt" gør at den ene del af kloden er tætter på solen en den anden, som betyder et par ting, mere indfaldene energi fra solen per kvm (om sommerne), og mindre indfaldene energi per kvm (om vinteren), men også at lyset går igennem mere atmosfære (vinteren – lavere vinkel fra horizonten), og mindre atmosfære (sommeren – højere vinkel fra horizonten) som ændre på mængden af energi der er absorberet før energien når frem til overfladen.
Godt nok er sommer/vinter ikke globale fænomer, og er lokaliseret til halv kugler.. Men disse relative små ændringer medfører temperatur skift på mellem 20-60 grader (lokalt), og man mener stadigvæk at CO2 er dominernede, og genere hele den gennemsnitlige temperatur ændring som der er observeret… på trods af stigningerne er i meget små procenter i forhold til sommer og vinter.
men man ved også at jorden har en "wobble" altså dens "tilt" ændre sig lidt over tiden, og når man kigger på vinter og sommer ændringerne, ville en lille ændring på et par grader vil ændre væsentlig på temperaturen, feks hvis vores "tilt" bliver reduceret med 1-2 grader (altså vi kommer tætter på at være 90 grader til solen, vil temperaturen – i gennemsnit stige, fordi vinterne bliver mindre kolde, og sommerne bliver længere, og derved kan opsamle mere varm..
Feks har vi bevæget os fra 24 grader for 8000 år siden, til nu omkring 23grader, og det vil forsætter ca 10 000 år endnu, hvor vi vil nå minimummet på 22grader.
Så hvad har vi fra solen der ville give højere temperaturer mellem år 1000 – 2000..
1. Meget aktiv sol – mere energi.
2. en tilt der roligt er blevet mindre (tætter på 90grader)
Nu har vi så en sol der bliver inaktiv, mens tilten forsætter med at blive mere lodret.. Det burde betyde inden for et par årtier, vil vi se temperaturne falde, og derved vise hvad der er drivkraften bag klimaet. Bliver spændende, da modsat alle de klima modeller, kan dette efterprøves.
Kære Michael,
Mange tak for din kommentar.
Du har helt ret. Fænomenet du omtaler kaldes for Milankovitch cyklussen. Disse ændringer vil dog være meget langsomme og derfor ikke noget vi kan se i klimamodellerne, selvom de medtog effekten.
Det er også rigtig at en mindre aktiv, eller en inaktiv Sol, nok vil give et køligere klima, men det er endnu for tidligt at konkludere at Solen er på vej ind i en inaktiv fase (selv om nogle har prøvet).
Mvh.
Christoffer
Tak for de oplysende oplysninger.
En tanke som ofte strejfer mig i forbindelse med CO2 og global warming
er at CO2 er grundlaget for alle levende væsner på planeten, samt herunder de rester disse væsner har efterladt.
Træer bliver til kul, som igen bliver til olie.
Selv det mængde kulstof bundet op i jorden som olie/kul svinder ind til nærmest ingenting i forhold til det mængde kulstof (CO2) bundet i kridt (rester af skaldedyre).
Man skal huske at alt dette kulstof har engang befundet sig i luften som C02, inden den blev laver om til sukker af planterne.
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